Looking through the global economy crystal ball

Forecasting the global economy is very very tricky. About a month back we heard that things would start looking better by end of 2009. But recently there were reports that things may not be so good after all. Every year in January India's National Council of Applied Economic Research ( NCAER) and the National Bureau of Economic Research ( NBER) of US arrange a conference on Indian and world economy in tourist resort called Neemrana. NCAER is staffed by some of the finest economists of India and some of the best brains from India and US attend this conference. However predicting the economy is difficult and fraught with risks even for them. The economists had no idea of the impending economic and financial crisis in the January 2007 conference - although there was some mention of concern in the US housing sector. Even in the January 2008 conference - Economists did not believe that US would get into recession and the contagion would spread to rest of world including India - although by that time the sub prime crisis was full blown.

Apparently , one of the reasons why things will not improve despite economic stimulus packages is because corporations are not spending. Here in India I see "cost cutting" all around me in all sectors.

I am just hoping gurus are wrong this time as well.